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I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. I got a life. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. And its never going to come back.. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Their fear is real, mine is. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. I dont watch TV. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Republican Gov. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. I think it worked out without me.. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. I am under that impression. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. He didnt vote in 2016 either. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. This claim is basically absurd. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. By Cara Ding. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. He loves this country. Theres too much corruption. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. And we just want that to continue. He considers Trump pro-life. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Im looking at both sides of it. Were a service industry-oriented area. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. He pissed off a lot of people. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Your email address will not be published. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. He isnt so sure about Biden. I think we needed somebody like him.. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. I think he is more for giving to the people.. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Its too big. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. bellwether. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Thus it would appear that bellwether. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. . Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. I just want Trump in. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Peoples common sense level is cooked. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. What happened to our Democratic Party? Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Here's why. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Two states have announced recounts. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Theres too much mishandling, she said. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Its just not that great, Paul said. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Right now, its horrible. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. This includes personalizing content and advertising. She shook her head at the high price of gas. SACRAMENTO . In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Jim Hoft. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. But according to the. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. That is, until this year. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. I think its very political right now, honestly. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We need creative leadership, Miller said. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Logistically, its a disaster. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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